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Editor’s Note, December 21, 10:20 a.m. ET: Shortly after midnight Saturday, the Senate passed a bill that would fund the government and prevent a shutdown. The bill did not provide for the suspension or abolition of the debt ceiling as demanded by Donald Trump.
This week’s installment of the long-running “House Republicans Can’t Govern” saga will soon be forgotten. Elon Musk’s decision to blow up a bipartisan agreement to keep the government funded through the sheer power of posting (and the latent threat of his immense wealth), Donald Trump is suddenly calling for the abolition of the debt limit, as Republican Chip Roy announced in the House of Representatives Colleagues say they lack “an ounce of self-respect” – all this drama is sure to give way to even more ridiculous ones in the new year.
But this week’s fight over government funding also revealed something that could have profound implications for the next four years of the administration: Trump’s power over Republicans in Congress is quite limited.
Just a few days ago this did not seem to be the case. On Wednesday, Trump joined Elon Musk in calling on House Republicans to scrap a bipartisan spending deal that would have funded the government through March, increased disaster relief and funded pediatric cancer research, among other measures. Although Republicans need the support of the Democratic majority in the Senate to pass any legislation – and failing to pass a spending bill by Saturday would mean a government shutdown – House Republicans heeded Trump’s call to scuttle the carefully negotiated compromise.
While Trump had little difficulty convincing his fellow political parties to block one spending bill, he proved less adept at getting them to support another.
On Thursday, the House GOP, in coordination with Trump, unveiled a new funding bill that ignores all of the Democrats’ priorities. Via social media, the president-elect instructed his party to “Vote ‘YES’ on this bill TONIGHT!” Then 38 Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against the bill, which was more than enough to kill it amid near-uniform Democratic opposition bring to.
House conservatives’ disregard for Trump stems in part from ideological differences. The president-elect’s objections to Wednesday’s bipartisan agreement differed from those of his donor Elon Musk or hard-line Republicans in the House of Representatives. The latter disregarded the number of pages and the fiscal costs of the spending bill. In contrast, Trump seemed more concerned that the law failed to raise or eliminate the debt limit.
Which is understandable. The debt limit is perhaps the most irrational of all U.S. government institutions. This does not prevent Congress from authorizing spending that far exceeds federal revenues. Rather, it authorizes the government to finance spending already mandated by Congress through borrowing. The alternative to raising the debt limit is for the government to default on its obligations to American citizens or their lenders, or both. In practice, breaching the debt limit could trigger global turmoil in financial markets as the world’s most trusted “safe” asset – US Treasuries – suddenly becomes a risky investment.
Although refusing to raise the debt limit would be economically disastrous, many lawmakers are inclined to do so anyway. After all, raising the government debt ceiling — when the federal debt is already at $36 trillion — can sound bad to voters if taken out of context in a campaign ad. And some conservatives see the threat of sabotaging the global financial system as a possible means of enforcing unpopular spending cuts.
So getting Congress to raise the debt limit is inevitably a bit difficult. And Trump doesn’t want this high-risk formality to get in the way of his plans to enact big tax cuts that, if history is any guide, will significantly increase the debt and deficit.
Trump therefore implored House Republicans to suspend the debt ceiling for at least two years—or, failing that, eliminate it altogether—lest it interfere with his honeymoon (since Congress will likely have to raise the debt ceiling next at some point). year after a crisis was narrowly averted in 2023). House Speaker Mike Johnson complied with that request, adding a two-year debt limit increase to Thursday’s bill.
For dozens of conservatives in the House of Representatives, the idea of voting for a spending bill that made no major funding cuts while eliminating the debt limit was more abhorrent than the prospect of defying Trump.
It’s not surprising that some House Republicans would prioritize conservative purity over loyalty to Trump. However, that almost 40 of them would have such priorities is a revelation. During the 2024 campaign, Trump demonstrated a remarkable ability to dictate ideological terms to his party, formally abandoning a nationwide abortion ban without provoking sustained attacks from his right. Combined with his apparent success in overhauling conservative orthodoxy on trade, social spending, and U.S.-Russia policy, Trump’s pivot to abortion raised the possibility that the modern right was a personality cult first and an ideological movement second .
It is now clear that this is not the case for a significant portion of Republicans in the House of Representatives. And that will pose major challenges to Trump’s agenda next year.
Republicans will control both chambers of Congress in 2025, but their majority in the House will be razor-thin: They will have at most a five-vote majority by year’s end, assuming they win all upcoming special elections in deep-red districts. The party must reach near unanimity to advance legislation without Democratic help. When it comes to passing the cornerstone of Trump’s legislative agenda, an extension and expansion of his 2017 tax cuts, it doesn’t seem like such a difficult task: After all, if Republicans agree on anything, it’s that taxes should be lower .
Still, some conservatives are showing real concern about deficits and insisting on paying for the tax cuts with spending cuts. Others come from swing districts and may be nervous about approving unpopular cuts to welfare programs. At least some Republicans are even reluctant to roll back all of the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax credits, which have disproportionately benefited Republican areas. It will be difficult to reassure all relevant constituencies.
In theory, Trump could make that task easier by intimidating hardline Republicans with accusations of disloyalty and threats of primary challenges. But after Thursday, it appears less certain that the president-elect actually has such power over Republican backbenchers in the House.
It’s worth remembering that Trump is a 78-year-old lame duck. If you’re an aspiring conservative member of the House of Representatives and want to run for higher office a decade from now, a reputation for conservative ideological purity may eventually prove more useful than a record of complete loyalty to an older man who’s attracted to the Republican party to disappear as soon as she loses the presidency.
Whatever happens, Trump is poised to wield a disturbing level of personal power over the executive branch next year. But he may find that his ability to dictate terms to Congress is as frustratingly limited as our government’s authority to issue new debt.
