The First Street Foundation study suggests that insurers could offer discounts to homeowners who take steps to fortify their homes, which would help make disasters less damaging. Moore said Florida was once a leader when it came to measures like building codes, although that has changed in recent years. The state also lacked a disclosure policy requiring property owners to disclose a property's flood history to buyers and renters.

Another bill would require landlords to inform tenants that they live in a flood zone, and another bill would force home sellers to inform potential buyers of past floods and insurance claims. The first measure has not progressed. The second was approved by the Florida State House and Senate on March 4 and is next to DeSantis for his signature.

“We must stop putting more and more people at risk, especially in Florida, where sea levels could rise by up to two and a half feet over the life of a 30-year mortgage over the next 30 years. Maybe we should tell people this before they buy a house. Maybe we won’t even issue the building permit there. The state needs to think about a revolutionary idea,” said Moore.

“As long as the state of Florida is determined to keep people in the dark about the risks, it is reaping the seeds it has sown,” he said. “You just have to look at the development boom in some of the state’s riskiest areas.”

Increasing risks may cause some homeowners to abandon certain areas. A separate study by the First Street Foundation combines Census Bureau and flood risk data to identify what the study describes as “climate-related abandoned areas” where population declines between 2000 and 2020 can be linked to vulnerability.

The areas are scattered nationwide but are concentrated in most of coastal Florida, the Mid-Atlantic region between New Jersey and Washington, D.C., and the Gulf Coast of Texas, particularly in Houston. The areas can even be found in some of the fastest growing metropolitan areas such as Miami. According to the study, properties in Miami-Dade County lost up to $3.99 per square foot in home value due to flood risk between 2005 and 2017.

Such migrations would likely not be consistent and would be linked to socioeconomic factors. Buyout programs are small compared to the widespread risk, Porter said.

Moore said providing relocation assistance has proven challenging in various locations across the country. Help can take time to reach the person and it can be difficult to help the person get where they want to go, he said.

“Most of our energy is buying them up so they can go somewhere else. But wherever else they go, it also presents some challenges, particularly in fast-growing areas where property values ​​are rising,” he said. “That may not be enough to help them relocate to a safer location.”

“There are simply no easy solutions to this, and in a state determined to continue development in high-risk areas, solutions are exponentially more difficult,” Moore said. “There are no solutions that work long-term when these dynamics are at play.”

Friedlander added: “We don’t see that [insurance] The market is getting worse and worse. But unfortunately, what does this mean for the average consumer? This does not mean that the bill will be reduced today or tomorrow. We are talking about a stabilizing market. We hope that we will see more moderate rate increases in 2024 than we have seen so far, but we cannot predict that.”

A rare place of nature

For Infinger, his family's property on Little Wekiva represents a rare spot of nature, hidden in the urban grid of highways and subdivisions outside Orlando.

He speaks with wonder rather than concern as he recalls a time when he and his wife watched a bear through a window of the family home as the animal prepared a snack of acorns. Watching coyotes come and go through the yard. He grew up with some of his neighbors. This feels like home.

However, that can change. The family has the money to pay the rising insurance premiums, said 41-year-old Infinger, who works in the construction industry. But as their children get older, he and his wife plan to move further out of Orlando, closer to his parents. He fears that his beloved little wekiva will flood the family's low-lying home again in the future.

“We already know there will be flooding,” he said. “It's only a matter of time.”